April 2006
What is the current research on high-school graduation rates? Who are the most vulnerable kids? What evidence-based interventions are there for preventing drop-outs? How successful are students who receive alternative certifications, such as GEDs?
Overview of Research
"How can we leave no child behind if we don’t know where every child is?” asked Scott Palmer, attorney-at-law with Holland and Knight LLP and moderator for the Alliance for Excellent Education’s recent symposium on graduation rates. Palmer’s question highlights the importance of continued research into the muddy waters of current information on high-school graduation rates, and the relevance of this issue to No Child Left Behind legislation. NCLB has made graduation rates a part of new accountability and reporting measures for states, hoping to prevent schools from attempting to raise their academic assessment scores by encouraging the lowest-scoring students to drop out. Yet schools have very different measures for assessing how many children are graduating, dropping out, or transferring to other schools, making valid cross-school and cross-state comparisons difficult.
Most of what we do know about graduation rates comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS), from which the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) obtains the relatively high high-school graduation rate it reports- around 86% for the class of 1998. Yet this number may be misleading, concealing startlingly low levels of graduation achievement for minority populations and youths with disabilities and special education needs. Attempts to pinpoint graduation rates are also plagued by “invisible” drop-outs, youths who are designated by schools as “transferred” or as enrolled in alternate certification programs like the GED, but in actuality have dropped out. Currently, organizations such as the Manhattan Institute, the Urban Institute, the Harvard University Civil Rights Project, and NCES are developing more rigorous measurements to find out exactly how severe and widespread the high-school drop out problem is, and exactly what population to target for drop-out interventions.
Most At-Risk Populations
Low Academic Achievement
Students who are doing poorly in academics are at highest risk of dropping out of high school. The Alliance for Excellent Education’s “Every Child a Graduate” report states that “students in the lowest 25% of academic achievement account for about 2/3 of all dropouts.”
Learning and Emotional Disabilities
Students with disabilities are also at increased risk of dropping out. During the 2000-2001 school, only 57% of exiting students with an identified learning disability received a regular diploma, while 11% received an alternative credential.
For an illustration of the high drop-out rates of students with emotional disabilities, take a look at the chart below, provided by the Michigan Department of Education. This chart shows the graduation and drop-out rates for students with disabilities in Michigan, broken out by disability. Note that students with “emotional impairment” have the highest drop-out rate, at 46.4%.
Urban and/or Minority Status
In addition to low academic achievement and disabilities, some of the most at-risk populations include:
- Students in urban schools
- Latino students
- African-American students
The Manhattan Institute reports that in the graduating class of 1998, while 71% of students graduated overall, only 56% of African American students, and only 54% of Latino students graduated.
Take a look at this table including a breakdown of graduation rates by race and ethnicity from the Urban Institutes’ policy paper, Keeping Count and Losing Count: Calculating Graduation Rates for All Students Under NCLB.
Diploma Alternatives
Encouraging students who are doing poorly in school to work towards a GED or other alternative certification instead of a regular diploma may not help them succeed. Studies indicate that students who receive a high school diploma do much better economically and academically than GED recipients.
In “GED’s for Teenagers: Are There Unintended Consequences?” author Duncan Chaplin investigates whether GEDs are as beneficial to students as traditional diplomas, or if presenting them as such actually encourages students to drop out of school. “[T]he most reliable evidence generally suggests that obtaining a GED instead of a regular high school degree results in substantially lower earnings later in life...[however] it appears that many teenagers are being given a misleading signal that a GED is similar to a regular high school degree.”
For more information on the pros and cons of the GED-track, take a look at what students and administrators have to say about their experience with GED programs. Special correspondent on education John Merrow reports from Florida on how switching kids to the GED track can actually make them “invisible” dropouts. Read about this issue in a transcript of PBS’s NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/education/july-dec04/dropouts_11-30.html
Also take a look at the recommendations for school graduation and alternative diploma policies for students with disabilities included in the National Study on Graduation Requirements and Diploma Options for Youth with Disabilities, published by the National Center on Educational Outcomes. Visit this resource at: http://education.umn.edu/nceo/OnlinePubs/Technical36.htm
Dropout Prevention Strategies
The key to dropout prevention is ensuring that all students are academically successful and engaged in the learning community. The Alliance for Excellent Education recommends a number of criteria for preventing high-school dropouts. These include:
- High-quality teachers
- Focused learning time
- Effective instructional methods and rigorous curriculum
- Counseling that encourages parental involvement
- Smaller learning environments
All of these are critical factors in improving the overall quality of a schools’ educational programming, indicating that helping all students to succeed also improves the outcomes of those most at-risk for dropping out.
Literacy
Literacy has been repeatedly shown to be a crucial factor in promoting school engagement and preventing drop-outs. The Alliance for Excellent Education’s “Every Child a Graduate” report states that, “Research shows...that students who receive intensive, focused literacy instruction and tutoring will graduate from high school and attend college in significantly greater numbers than those not receiving such attention.”
Offering extra academic supports to struggling students is imperative, yet studies show that extra-help programs are most often successful when they offer not only remedial help but also an opportunity to develop more advanced skills.
Resources
Alternative Certifications:
1. This information brief provided by the National Center on Secondary Education and Transition discusses a variety of diploma alternatives, as well as the pros and cons of alternative certifications for students with disabilities. Visit this resource at:
http://www.ncset.org/publications/viewdesc.asp?id=1928
Drop-out Prevention:
1. The Alliance for Excellent Education offers recommendations for effective adolescent literacy programs:
www.all4ed.org
2. Students with Disabilities who Drop Out of School: Implications for Policy and Practice. This issue brief from the National Center on Secondary Education and Transition includes strategies gleaned from three demonstration projects funded in the early 1990s to prevent students with learning, emotional, and/or behavioral disabilities from dropping out. View this resource at: http://www.ncset.org/publications/issue/NCSETIssueBrief_1.2.pdf
3. For information on implementing Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS) to reduce drop outs and behavioral issues and increase academic success, take a look at the PBIS Web site at:
http://www.pbis.org/highschool.htm
4. In their new book, Reconnecting Disadvantaged Young Men, authors Peter Edelman, Harry J. Holzer, and Paul Offner discuss the factors that alienate young minority men from school and jobs and offer policy strategies for improving training and education opportunities and incentives. Find information for ordering this book at:
http://www.urban.org/pubs/reconnecting/
Funding:
1. Federal programs such as the Vocational Rehabilitation (VR), Workforce Investment Act (WIA), and Ticket-to-Work (Ticket) initiatives can help fund programs to support students with disabilities in their efforts to finish high school.
Sources
Chaplin, D. (1999). GEDs for Teenagers: Are There Unintended Consquences? The Urban Institute. Retrieved April 11, 2006 from http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/GED.pdf
Federal Actions Can Assist States in Improving Postsecondary Outcomes for Youth. (July 2003). United States General Accounting Office, Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, U.S. Senate, Special Education. Retrieved December 17, 2005 from http://www.openminds.com/indres/disabledyouthtransition.pdf
Joftus, S. (2002). Every Child a Graduate: A Framework for an Excellent Education for all Middle and High School Students. Alliance for Excellent Education. Retrieved April 11, 2006 from http://www.all4ed.org/publications/EveryChildAGraduate/every.pdf
Special Education in Michigan, Graduation and Drop Out Rates, 2003-04 Annual Performance Report. (2004). Office of Special Education and Early Intervention Services, Michigan Department of Education. Retrieved April 11, 2006 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/APR04BF2FactSheet_130731_7.pdf.
Swanson, C.B. (2003). Keeping Count and Losing Count: Calculating Graduation Rates for All Students Under NCLB Accountability. Education Policy Center, The Urban Institute. Retrieved April 11, 2006 from http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=410843.
Swanson, C. B., & Chaplin, D. (2003). Counting High School Graduates when Graduates Count: Measuring Graduation Rates under the High Stakes of NCLB [Electronic version]. Education Policy Center, The Urban Institute. Retrieved April 11, 2006 from http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/410641_NCLB.pdf
